Bitcoin's power law: what it is and its limits
You may hear people talk about Bitcoin's "power law". This page explains, in plain words, what the idea is, where it came from and why it has real limits. It is here to help you understand the conversation.
This is a historical model, not a prediction. Nobody knows future prices. General information only, not financial advice.
Past prices and the model line, 2010 to today
Its limits
It only describes prices that have already happened. A line drawn through the past says nothing certain about tomorrow.
Price has spent long stretches well above and well below the line, sometimes for years.
Many economists and Bitcoin people disagree with it. Models like this can stop working at any time, and the line could be wrong.
It is not a reason to buy, sell or hold anything. Please make your own decisions, and talk to a licensed adviser about your own situation.
What is it, in simple words?
Giovanni Santostasi, a physicist, noticed that if you draw Bitcoin's price and the days since its first block on a special "log" chart, the messy history looks close to a straight line. He shared it in 2018, and Fred Krueger and others helped make it popular in 2024.
The model line is 1.0117 × 10⁻¹⁷ × (days since 3 Jan 2009)5.82 in US dollars. The lower dashed line is 0.42 times the model line. In past cycles, price has mostly stayed above it, which is history only.
Price has swung well above and well below the line, sometimes for years. It's a way of looking at the past.
This is a historical model, not a prediction. Nobody knows future prices. General information only, not financial advice. Model: Giovanni Santostasi's Bitcoin power law; floor multiple as published by BGeometrics.
